We have witnessed a significant buying surge in the fourth quarter of 2008 due to rock bottom housing prices coupled with fantastic interest rates on mortgages. It has been a very unusual and controversial year in the financial markets with the real estate market being directly affected. The unraveling of more buyers losing their homes due to mortgage loans being made, that buyers should never have qualified for in the first place, has not hit bottom. The intriguing part of this is that inventory has been decreasing while foreclosure activity has been soaring. What does this tell us?
It has been proven time and time again that the real estate and stock markets are cyclical and follow trends and patterns. The stock market usually sets the path and will come back first prior to a full economic recovery. The real estate market tends to get hot, decline and remain relatively flat until the next cycle. There is a lot of uncertainty in the economic industry and money markets right now with the general public anxiously awaiting some sort of stabilizing indicators to happen. We have a new President about the take over a huge mess and extremely large companies bleeding financially. It is somewhat likely that we will see energy become the next hot streak with corporate spending on research and development along with new ideas regarding how to improve economic conditions here at home. This is going to take a while to straighten out and move forward in a positive direction. The real estate market is close to the bottom of the cycle right now and will take several years to revitalize itself back to a hot sellers market. First will be the stock market recovery followed by a slow moving real estate market increase providing great buys on property for a while. It seems confusing why we are seeing a decrease in inventory when it is evident that it will continue to be a buyer’s market. Here is what we see happening.
What we are seeing now is the investors getting back into the game and taking advantage of great opportunities to acquire Bay Area properties at fantastic prices. There are a few reasons for investors not wanting to wait but to take advantage now.
1. The selection is fantastic right now and investors can cherry pick more of the properties they want.
2. Interest rates are very low and financing is great for people who have cash for a strong down payment. This is also favorable for finding properties that can cash flow.
3. It is a great time in the market to purchase with rock bottom prices.
4. Investors want to maximize profit and therefore don’t want to wait five years to pay forty or fifty thousand dollars more for the same property.
5. The economy is down and businesses that sell materials are being forced to provide purchase incentives in order to move inventory. This allows investors a chance to cut costs on materials and helps to maximize profitability.
6. The supply and demand factor in the Bay Area is favorable for investors because of the demand for housing.
We are witnessing multiple offers on properties that are priced to sell and investors are helping the banks take negative debt off their books at the same time. Our prediction is that we will continue to see a similar pattern to follow in 2009 with things stabilizing in 2010. The time for serious real estate investors has never been better and the real players of the game are already in and set up to make an absolute fortune in the next up-swing. Historically there has been more wealth earned from the proceeds of real estate than any other investment opportunity in the United States. The San Francisco Bay Area is among the world’s elite locations for property with its climate and vast endless array of things to do. There is such variety in the Bay Area for culture, entertainment, strong job markets, cuisine, wine country and outdoor activity that is draws global audiences every year thus adding to the desirability. Local investors are in the market now for a multitude of good reasons and have the ability to recognize the full potential of its return on investment.
There is more good news. There will be a chance for first time buyers to enter the market that previously could not afford to get in. Lenders will continue to find programs to help first time buyers with affordable rates in order to produce loans. We have seen the return of favorable FHA financing and programs to help buyers with credit problems and down payment assistance.
The bottom line is that there will be those who become very wealthy and those who don’t. I guess the question is: Which side of the fence will you be on? For more real estate information, please visit us online or contact us with any questions.
Happy holidays,
Matt Larsen
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